Tech Money Flow

Who gets paid for AI?I check the receipts.

Everybody's spending on AI. So who's actually getting paid? I follow the money through 12 layers of the AI build-out. Each one gets a score, 0 to 10, on one thing: what buyers gave up to get supply. And I only count it if it's on paper.

No stock picks. No price targets. Just the receipts.

With Money Mitch, your money flow monitor.

Ep 1 · October 12, 2026

$730 Billion Later, They Still Can't Get Enough

The first full board. 12 layers, every score, and the paper behind each one.

Watch on YouTube →

The Money Board

Layer scores. Not stock ratings.

12 layers of the AI build-out, each scored on the best receipt I can find. A receipt is proof, in a filing or on an earnings call, that a buyer gave something up to get supply.

The ties are the verdict.

Score 10

The Warehouse

Memory and storage

Where AI keeps its data.

Paid up front

Sellers I checkKioxia · Micron · Samsung (receipt) · SanDisk (receipt) · SK hynix

Score 10

The Bouncer

Power and cooling

Decides which data centers get power.

Paid up front

Sellers I checkEaton · GE Vernova (receipt) · Hitachi · Schneider Electric · Siemens Energy (receipt)

Score 9

The Foundation

Substrates and wafers

The base every chip sits on.

Paid up front

Sellers I checkAjinomoto · GlobalWafers · Ibiden · Samsung Electro-Mechanics · SUMCO

BuyerIntel (receipt)

Score 9

The Owners

Cloud and platform

Rent out AI computing.

Paid up front

Sellers I checkAlibaba · Alphabet · Amazon · Microsoft · Oracle (receipt)

Score 5

The Toolmaker

Manufacturing equipment

The machines that make chips.

Price hike the buyer admitted

Sellers I checkApplied Materials · ASML · KLA · Lam Research · Tokyo Electron

BuyerTSMC (receipt)

Score 5

The Traffic Cops

Networking silicon

Chips that direct data traffic.

Price hike the buyer admitted

Sellers I checkAMD · Broadcom · Intel · Marvell · NVIDIA

BuyerArista (receipt)

Score 3

The Long Haul

Optical interconnect

Light that carries data far.

Locked volume

Sellers I checkCoherent · Corning · Fabrinet · InnoLight · Lumentum (receipt)

Score 3

The Superstar

Compute silicon

The chip that does the AI math.

Locked volume

Sellers I checkAMD · Broadcom (receipt) · Intel · Marvell · NVIDIA

Score 1

The Print Shop

Foundry

Prints chips for other companies.

Sold out

Sellers I checkIntel · Samsung · TSMC (receipt)

Score 1

The Bottleneck

Advanced packaging

Joins chips into one package.

Sold out

Sellers I checkAmkor · ASE · Intel · Powertech · TSMC (receipt)

Score 1

The Grounds Crew

Construction

Builds the data centers.

Sold out

Sellers I checkComfort Systems (receipt) · EMCOR · Hochtief (Turner) · MasTec · Quanta

Score 0

The Plumbing

Electrical interconnect

Copper that connects it all.

No receipt

Sellers I checkAmphenol · Credo · FIT Hon Teng · Luxshare · TE Connectivity

Green step: still in motion. The company hasn't said if the money comes back. Gold step: settled. Underlined: the receipt comes from them.

Every layer has a fixed list of sellers I read every quarter. Same list, every time. A buyer counts when it sells on another layer's list, or its own filing names a seller on this one. Being on the list isn't a rating. Most companies on it have no receipt.

See the paper behind every score →

How the score works

One question: what did buyers give up to get supply, and can I prove it? Think of it like buying a car.

One company: the lower number. Two: the higher one.

A second company showing the same thing on paper moves a layer to the top of its pair.

No layer beats its best receipt.

However good the story, the score stops at the step the paper proves.

Pressure isn't profit.

A 10 means buyers are pushing hard to get supply. It doesn't mean anyone's making money.

  1. 9–10

    Paid up front

    You pay cash before the car is even built.

  2. 7–8

    Signed floor

    You sign, you can't back out, and the price can't drop.

  3. 5–6

    Price hike the buyer admitted

    You admit you paid over sticker.

  4. 3–4

    Locked volume

    You sign for a car you can't cancel, but the price isn't locked.

  5. 1–2

    Sold out

    The dealer says they're sold out. That's the dealer talking.

  6. 0

    No receipt

    Nothing on paper. That's a verdict on the proof, not the business.

The ledger

Every live receipt, word for word, with where I found it. Free. Forever.

“During the first quarter of fiscal 2027, we received $11.4 billion of prepayments from customers that included a significant financing component.”
Oracle ORCL · Oracle Form 10-Q, quarter ended Aug 31, 2026, filed Sep 11, 2026 (R10)
Educational only
Score 9

The Owners

Cloud and platform

Oracle received $11.4B of customer prepayments in one quarter, tied on its call to new cloud contracts.

Step
Paid up front · still in motion
Sources
1 company: Oracle
Sellers I check
Alibaba, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle
Covers
Oracle's new cloud contracts, tied to the prepayments on its call.
Why this number
One company, so 9, not 10.
What knocks it down
That cash going back, or a filing that says it can.
What it doesn't prove
Why Oracle asked for it (it lists prepayments among its tools for managing customer credit risk), or that anyone makes money on it. The prepayments carry a financing component, so Oracle pays interest on them.
Still in motion because
Nothing says whether the money comes back.
Open the full ledger →Where I looked →Corrections →

Claims

Every call I make has a date on it. I grade it in public, against the words I said that day. Misses read first.

0Misses
0Mixed
0Hits
OPEN

The Foundation · Ep 1

Hit: The Foundation goes 9 → 10 (if Intel's receipt still stands).
Miss: The Foundation holds at 9.

I grade it April 7, 2027.

Read every call word for word →

The newsletter

Every receipt for all 12 layers, with sources, in your inbox.

One email a week. Free. Unsubscribe in one click. Read past letters →